Philadelphia Flyers at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2026-04-27 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 3 - 2 Philadelphia Flyers

🚨 Upset Win (53% underdog)

Win Probability

PIT: 47.5%

PHI: 52.5%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.12

PHI: 3.39

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 47%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • PIT at home vs PHI: 5-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-29	PHI 1 - 0 PIT	PHI	PIT
2026-04-27	PIT 3 - 2 PHI	PIT	PHI
2026-04-25	PHI 2 - 4 PIT	PIT	PHI
2026-04-22	PHI 5 - 2 PIT	PHI	PHI
2026-04-20	PIT 0 - 3 PHI	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	16	0	1.20
1	PHI	21	1	1.11
2	PIT	12	0	0.77
2	PHI	10	1	0.61
3	PIT	14	3	2.17
3	PHI	11	0	0.42

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 3 - 2 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 3.1 - 3.4