Philadelphia Flyers at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2026-04-27 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 3 - 2 Philadelphia Flyers

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

PIT: 56.5%

PHI: 43.5%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.22

PHI: 3.17

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

PIT

Arturs Silovs - 7-5-6 | 0.886 SV% | 3.20 GAA

PHI

Dan Vladar - 14-6-3 | 0.910 SV% | 2.40 GAA

Stat	PIT	PHI
Season SV%	0.886	0.910
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.20	2.40

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Arturs Silovs	20	18	2	90.0%	2.13	2	0.13
PHI	Dan Vladar	21	18	3	85.7%	4.13	3	1.13

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 72% • PIT at home vs PHI: 5-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-29	PHI 1 - 0 PIT	PHI	PHI
2026-04-27	PIT 3 - 2 PHI	PIT	PIT
2026-04-25	PHI 2 - 4 PIT	PIT	PIT
2026-04-22	PHI 5 - 2 PIT	PHI	PIT
2026-04-20	PIT 0 - 3 PHI	PHI	PHI

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	16	0	1.20
1	PHI	21	1	1.11
2	PIT	12	0	0.77
2	PHI	10	1	0.61
3	PIT	14	3	2.17
3	PHI	11	0	0.42

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 56.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown