Pittsburgh Penguins at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2026-04-29 • Xfinity Mobile Arena

Philadelphia Flyers 1 - 0 Pittsburgh Penguins (OT)

🚨 Upset Win (54% underdog)

Win Probability

PHI: 45.9%

PIT: 54.1%

Expected Goals

PHI: 2.59

PIT: 3.16

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 44%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • PHI at home vs PIT: 6-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-29	PHI 1 - 0 PIT	PHI	PIT
2026-04-27	PIT 3 - 2 PHI	PIT	PHI
2026-04-25	PHI 2 - 4 PIT	PIT	PHI
2026-04-22	PHI 5 - 2 PIT	PHI	PHI
2026-04-20	PIT 0 - 3 PHI	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	15	0	0.82
1	PIT	15	0	0.90
2	PHI	13	2	1.43
2	PIT	16	0	0.88
3	PHI	5	0	0.33
3	PIT	23	2	1.53
4	PHI	6	0	0.40
4	PIT	18	1	1.31

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 1.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 1 - 0 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 2.6 - 3.2