Dallas Stars at Minnesota Wild NHL Predictions

2026-04-22 • Grand Casino Arena

Minnesota Wild 3 - 4 Dallas Stars (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

MIN: 52.7%

DAL: 47.3%

Expected Goals

MIN: 3.33

DAL: 3.00

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

MIN

Jesper Wallstedt - 11-2-3 | 0.928 SV% | 2.21 GAA

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

Stat	MIN	DAL
Season SV%	0.928	0.907
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.21	2.57

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MIN	Jesper Wallstedt	29	26	3	89.7%	3.46	2	0.46
DAL	Jake Oettinger	29	26	3	89.7%	1.79	0	-1.21

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 47% • MIN at home vs DAL: 5-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-30	MIN 5 - 2 DAL	MIN	MIN
2026-04-28	DAL 2 - 4 MIN	MIN	DAL
2026-04-25	MIN 3 - 2 DAL	MIN	DAL
2026-04-22	MIN 3 - 4 DAL	DAL	MIN
2026-04-20	DAL 4 - 2 MIN	DAL	DAL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MIN	10	0	0.50
1	DAL	10	0	0.61
2	MIN	11	0	0.57
2	DAL	12	1	1.14
3	MIN	9	0	0.30
3	DAL	15	1	1.48
4	MIN	12	0	0.42
4	DAL	4	0	0.23

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Minnesota Wild 3 - 4 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.3 - 3.0