Dallas Stars at Minnesota Wild NHL Predictions

2026-04-25 • Grand Casino Arena

Minnesota Wild 3 - 2 Dallas Stars (OT)

🚨 Upset Win (50% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

MIN: 49.7%

DAL: 50.3%

Expected Goals

MIN: 3.28

DAL: 2.96

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

MIN

Jesper Wallstedt - 11-2-3 | 0.928 SV% | 2.21 GAA

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

Stat	MIN	DAL
Season SV%	0.928	0.907
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.21	2.57

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MIN	Jesper Wallstedt	45	43	2	95.6%	4.00	4	2.00
DAL	Jake Oettinger	43	40	3	93.0%	3.73	2	0.73

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 47% • MIN at home vs DAL: 5-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-30	MIN 5 - 2 DAL	MIN	MIN
2026-04-28	DAL 2 - 4 MIN	MIN	DAL
2026-04-25	MIN 3 - 2 DAL	MIN	DAL
2026-04-22	MIN 3 - 4 DAL	DAL	MIN
2026-04-20	DAL 4 - 2 MIN	DAL	DAL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MIN	22	1	1.38
1	DAL	13	2	0.93
2	MIN	7	0	0.27
2	DAL	24	1	1.85
3	MIN	18	1	1.31
3	DAL	14	1	0.72
4	MIN	16	0	0.77
4	DAL	15	0	0.50

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Minnesota Wild 3 - 2 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.3 - 3.0