Utah Hockey Club at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2026-04-21 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 2 - 3 Utah Hockey Club

🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)

Win Probability

VGK: 55.8%

UTA: 44.2%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.08

UTA: 2.93

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 43%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • VGK at home vs UTA: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-01	UTA 1 - 5 VGK	VGK	VGK
2026-04-29	VGK 5 - 4 UTA	VGK	VGK
2026-04-27	UTA 4 - 5 VGK	VGK	VGK
2026-04-24	UTA 4 - 2 VGK	UTA	VGK
2026-04-21	VGK 2 - 3 UTA	UTA	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	18	0	1.17
1	UTA	8	1	1.22
2	VGK	4	0	0.29
2	UTA	17	1	1.44
3	VGK	12	0	0.56
3	UTA	18	0	1.49

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 2 - 3 Utah Hockey Club

Expected: 3.1 - 2.9