Utah Hockey Club at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2026-04-21 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 2 - 3 Utah Hockey Club

🚨 Upset Loss (63% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

VGK: 62.9%

UTA: 37.1%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.50

UTA: 2.63

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 42%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

VGK

Carter Hart - 4-2-3 | 0.883 SV% | 3.18 GAA

UTA

Karel Vejmelka - 17-10-2 | 0.895 SV% | 2.68 GAA

Stat	VGK	UTA
Season SV%	0.883	0.895
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.18	2.68

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	Carter Hart	30	27	3	90.0%	4.16	2	1.16
UTA	Karel Vejmelka	21	19	2	90.5%	2.02	0	0.02

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • VGK at home vs UTA: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-01	UTA 1 - 5 VGK	VGK	VGK
2026-04-29	VGK 5 - 4 UTA	VGK	VGK
2026-04-27	UTA 4 - 5 VGK	VGK	VGK
2026-04-24	UTA 4 - 2 VGK	UTA	VGK
2026-04-21	VGK 2 - 3 UTA	UTA	VGK

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	18	0	1.17
1	UTA	8	1	1.22
2	VGK	4	0	0.29
2	UTA	17	1	1.44
3	VGK	12	0	0.56
3	UTA	18	0	1.49

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 62.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown