Vegas Golden Knights at Utah Hockey Club NHL Predictions

2026-04-27 • Delta Center

Utah Hockey Club 4 - 5 Vegas Golden Knights (OT)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

UTA: 48.8%

VGK: 51.2%

Expected Goals

UTA: 3.26

VGK: 3.17

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 44%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

UTA

Karel Vejmelka - 17-10-2 | 0.895 SV% | 2.68 GAA

VGK

Carter Hart - 4-2-3 | 0.883 SV% | 3.18 GAA

Stat	UTA	VGK
Season SV%	0.895	0.883
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.68	3.18

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
UTA	Karel Vejmelka	36	31	5	86.1%	4.11	3	-0.89
VGK	Carter Hart	31	27	4	87.1%	2.35	0	-1.65

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • UTA at home vs VGK: 2-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-01	UTA 1 - 5 VGK	VGK	VGK
2026-04-29	VGK 5 - 4 UTA	VGK	VGK
2026-04-27	UTA 4 - 5 VGK	VGK	VGK
2026-04-24	UTA 4 - 2 VGK	UTA	VGK
2026-04-21	VGK 2 - 3 UTA	UTA	VGK

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	UTA	7	0	0.50
1	VGK	14	2	1.12
2	UTA	15	0	1.11
2	VGK	18	1	1.34
3	UTA	12	0	0.48
3	VGK	16	0	0.83
4	UTA	11	0	0.25
4	VGK	14	0	0.82

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 51.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Utah Hockey Club 4 - 5 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.3 - 3.2