Anaheim Ducks at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2026-04-22 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 4 - 6 Anaheim Ducks

🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

EDM: 55.1%

ANA: 44.9%

Expected Goals

EDM: 3.38

ANA: 2.81

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 48%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

EDM

Connor Ingram - 2-2-0 | 0.883 SV% | 3.28 GAA

ANA

Lukas Dostal - 13-9-2 | 0.888 SV% | 3.15 GAA

Stat	EDM	ANA
Season SV%	0.883	0.888
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.28	3.15

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
EDM	Connor Ingram	28	22	6	78.6%	3.18	3	-2.82
ANA	Lukas Dostal	37	33	4	89.2%	3.06	1	-0.94

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 65% • EDM at home vs ANA: 7-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-30	ANA 5 - 2 EDM	ANA	ANA
2026-04-28	EDM 4 - 1 ANA	EDM	EDM
2026-04-26	ANA 4 - 3 EDM	ANA	ANA
2026-04-24	ANA 7 - 4 EDM	ANA	ANA
2026-04-22	EDM 4 - 6 ANA	ANA	EDM

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	19	1	1.84
1	ANA	15	0	0.78
2	EDM	12	0	0.55
2	ANA	19	1	1.19
3	EDM	12	0	0.66
3	ANA	9	2	1.21

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 10.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown