Anaheim Ducks at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2026-04-28 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 4 - 1 Anaheim Ducks

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

EDM: 56.6%

ANA: 43.4%

Expected Goals

EDM: 3.17

ANA: 2.74

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

EDM

Connor Ingram - 2-2-0 | 0.883 SV% | 3.28 GAA

ANA

Lukas Dostal - 13-9-2 | 0.888 SV% | 3.15 GAA

Stat	EDM	ANA
Season SV%	0.883	0.888
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.28	3.15

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
EDM	Connor Ingram	30	29	1	96.7%	2.08	2	1.08
ANA	Lukas Dostal	20	16	4	80.0%	2.16	0	-1.84

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 65% • EDM at home vs ANA: 7-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-30	ANA 5 - 2 EDM	ANA	ANA
2026-04-28	EDM 4 - 1 ANA	EDM	EDM
2026-04-26	ANA 4 - 3 EDM	ANA	ANA
2026-04-24	ANA 7 - 4 EDM	ANA	ANA
2026-04-22	EDM 4 - 6 ANA	ANA	EDM

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	18	0	1.38
1	ANA	8	0	0.51
2	EDM	9	0	0.74
2	ANA	15	1	0.83
3	EDM	3	0	0.04
3	ANA	20	1	0.75

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 56.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown