Florida Panthers at Carolina Hurricanes NHL Predictions

2026-09-29 • Lenovo Center

Carolina Hurricanes 0 - 1 Florida Panthers (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

CAR: 55.0%

FLA: 45.0%

Expected Goals

CAR: 2.86

FLA: 3.82

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 51%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CAR

Brandon Bussi - 13-2-1 | 0.901 SV% | 2.33 GAA

FLA

J. Markstrom

Stat	CAR	FLA
Season SV%	0.901	—
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.33	—

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CAR	Brandon Bussi	20	19	1	95.0%	1.95	1	0.95
FLA	J. Markstrom	15	15	0	100.0%	2.09	2	2.09

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 48% • CAR at home vs FLA: 4-10

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-09-29	CAR 0 - 1 FLA	FLA	CAR
2026-01-16	CAR 9 - 1 FLA	CAR	CAR
2025-12-23	CAR 2 - 5 FLA	FLA	CAR
2025-12-19	FLA 4 - 3 CAR	FLA	CAR
2025-05-28	CAR 3 - 5 FLA	FLA	CAR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CAR	5	0	0.21
1	FLA	8	0	0.60
2	CAR	12	1	1.08
2	FLA	11	1	0.97
3	CAR	6	1	0.74
3	FLA	10	0	0.30
4	CAR	1	0	0.06
4	FLA	2	0	0.08

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 1.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Carolina Hurricanes 0 - 1 Florida Panthers

Expected: 2.9 - 3.8