New York Rangers at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2026-09-29 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 3 - 0 New York Rangers

🚨 Upset Win (56% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

BOS: 44.4%

NYR: 55.6%

Expected Goals

BOS: 1.72

NYR: 3.49

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 43%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Stat	BOS	NYR
Season SV%	0.903	0.910
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.84	2.51

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	24	24	0	100.0%	2.04	0	2.04
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	23	20	3	87.0%	3.45	1	0.45

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 31% • BOS at home vs NYR: 5-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-09-29	BOS 3 - 0 NYR	BOS	NYR
2026-01-26	NYR 4 - 3 BOS	NYR	BOS
2026-01-10	BOS 10 - 2 NYR	BOS	BOS
2025-11-28	BOS 2 - 6 NYR	NYR	NYR
2025-02-05	NYR 3 - 2 BOS	NYR	NYR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	9	0	0.65
1	NYR	7	0	0.38
2	BOS	14	0	0.85
2	NYR	13	0	0.75
3	BOS	17	1	1.95
3	NYR	11	0	0.91

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 5.2

Score Breakdown