Vancouver Canucks at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2026-09-29 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 5 - 6 Vancouver Canucks (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

EDM: 56.2%

VAN: 43.8%

Expected Goals

EDM: 3.82

VAN: 2.96

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

EDM

Tristan Jarry - 12-3-1 | 0.906 SV% | 2.73 GAA

VAN

Kevin Lankinen - 6-10-3 | 0.885 SV% | 3.41 GAA

Stat	EDM	VAN
Season SV%	0.906	0.885
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.73	3.41

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
EDM	Tristan Jarry	23	17	6	73.9%	1.98	2	-4.02
VAN	Kevin Lankinen	37	32	5	86.5%	3.72	4	-1.28

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 52% • EDM at home vs VAN: 8-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-01	VAN 7 - 9 EDM	EDM	EDM
2026-09-29	EDM 5 - 6 VAN	VAN	EDM
2026-04-16	EDM 6 - 1 VAN	EDM	EDM
2026-01-17	VAN 0 - 6 EDM	EDM	EDM
2025-10-26	VAN 4 - 3 EDM	VAN	EDM

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	16	1	1.53
1	VAN	7	0	0.47
2	EDM	13	1	0.65
2	VAN	9	1	0.48
3	EDM	19	2	1.55
3	VAN	11	0	0.63
4	EDM	0	0	0.00
4	VAN	3	1	0.41

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 6.8

Score Breakdown

Edmonton Oilers 5 - 6 Vancouver Canucks

Expected: 3.8 - 3.0