Chicago Blackhawks at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2026-09-29 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 5 - 2 Chicago Blackhawks

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

VGK: 54.8%

CHI: 45.2%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.55

CHI: 2.70

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

VGK

Carter Hart - 4-2-3 | 0.883 SV% | 3.18 GAA

CHI

Spencer Knight - 11-11-6 | 0.909 SV% | 2.63 GAA

Stat	VGK	CHI
Season SV%	0.883	0.909
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.18	2.63

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	Carter Hart	26	24	2	92.3%	2.25	1	0.25
CHI	Spencer Knight	37	32	5	86.5%	4.22	2	-0.78

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 69% • VGK at home vs CHI: 7-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-09-29	VGK 5 - 2 CHI	VGK	VGK
2026-03-14	VGK 4 - 0 CHI	VGK	VGK
2026-01-04	CHI 3 - 2 VGK	CHI	VGK
2025-12-02	VGK 4 - 3 CHI	VGK	VGK
2025-03-28	CHI 3 - 5 VGK	VGK	VGK

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	23	0	1.52
1	CHI	9	1	0.73
2	VGK	17	1	1.33
2	CHI	12	0	0.53
3	VGK	11	1	1.37
3	CHI	18	0	0.98

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown