Pittsburgh Penguins at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2026-09-30 • Xfinity Mobile Arena

Philadelphia Flyers 0 - 7 Pittsburgh Penguins

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

PHI: 46.2%

PIT: 53.8%

Expected Goals

PHI: 2.52

PIT: 4.24

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

PHI

Dan Vladar - 14-6-3 | 0.910 SV% | 2.40 GAA

PIT

Arturs Silovs - 7-5-6 | 0.886 SV% | 3.20 GAA

Stat	PHI	PIT
Season SV%	0.910	0.886
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.40	3.20

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	Dan Vladar	38	31	7	81.6%	4.38	4	-2.62
PIT	Arturs Silovs	19	19	0	100.0%	1.65	0	1.65

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • PHI at home vs PIT: 7-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-09-30	PHI 0 - 7 PIT	PIT	PIT
2026-04-29	PHI 1 - 0 PIT	PHI	PIT
2026-04-27	PIT 3 - 2 PHI	PIT	PIT
2026-04-25	PHI 2 - 4 PIT	PIT	PHI
2026-04-22	PHI 5 - 2 PIT	PHI	PHI

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	9	0	0.26
1	PIT	16	0	0.97
2	PHI	11	0	0.60
2	PIT	22	3	2.10
3	PHI	14	0	0.79
3	PIT	15	1	1.31

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.8

Score Breakdown