Los Angeles Kings at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2026-09-30 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 8 - 4 Los Angeles Kings

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

COL: 55.7%

LAK: 44.3%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.59

LAK: 2.60

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 47%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

COL

Mackenzie Blackwood - 13-1-1 | 0.924 SV% | 2.07 GAA

LAK

Darcy Kuemper - 10-7-6 | 0.913 SV% | 2.27 GAA

Stat	COL	LAK
Season SV%	0.924	0.913
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.07	2.27

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	Mackenzie Blackwood	31	27	4	87.1%	2.90	0	-1.10
LAK	Darcy Kuemper	29	21	8	72.4%	3.09	4	-4.91

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 65% • COL at home vs LAK: 8-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-09-30	COL 8 - 4 LAK	COL	COL
2026-04-26	LAK 1 - 5 COL	COL	LAK
2026-04-23	LAK 2 - 4 COL	COL	COL
2026-04-21	COL 2 - 1 LAK	COL	COL
2026-04-19	COL 2 - 1 LAK	COL	COL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	11	0	0.65
1	LAK	18	0	1.30
2	COL	12	2	1.40
2	LAK	19	0	1.11
3	COL	12	2	1.04
3	LAK	8	0	0.48

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 55.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 12.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown