New York Islanders at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2026-09-30 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 1 New York Islanders

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

TOR: 61.2%

NYI: 38.8%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.59

NYI: 2.86

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 50%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

TOR

Anthony Stolarz - 6-5-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.51 GAA

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

Stat	TOR	NYI
Season SV%	0.884	0.910
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.51	2.55

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	Anthony Stolarz	27	26	1	96.3%	2.54	1	1.54
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	26	24	2	92.3%	2.84	2	0.84

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 65% • TOR at home vs NYI: 4-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-17	TOR 1 - 4 NYI	NYI	NYI
2026-09-30	TOR 2 - 1 NYI	TOR	TOR
2026-04-09	NYI 5 - 3 TOR	NYI	NYI
2026-03-17	TOR 1 - 3 NYI	NYI	NYI
2026-01-03	NYI 4 - 3 TOR	NYI	NYI

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	15	1	1.29
1	NYI	16	0	0.44
2	TOR	14	0	0.82
2	NYI	11	0	0.82
3	TOR	8	1	0.74
3	NYI	19	1	1.28

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 61.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown