Tampa Bay Lightning at Toronto Maple Leafs Win Probability Chart (Mar 07, 2026)
In-Game Dashboard
Tampa Bay Lightning at Toronto Maple Leafs
Toronto Maple Leafs pregame win prob
53.4%
Win Probability Timeline
Goals are marked on the curve. Period markers show regulation pacing.
Lead changes
1
Biggest swing
20.0 pp
Home time led
20.8%
Away time led
79.2%
The Flood (5+ straight)TBL
Key Moments
Goals, period starts, and game end.| # | Period | Time | Event | Score | Home Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 54 | 1 | 00:00 | period-start | 0-0 | 53.4% |
| 115 | 1 | 04:50 | goal | 1-0 | 68.5% |
| 131 | 1 | 05:36 | goal | 1-1 | 53.2% |
| 247 | 1 | 12:30 | goal | 1-2 | 33.1% |
| 265 | 1 | 13:48 | goal | 1-3 | 17.8% |
| 282 | 1 | 15:06 | goal | 1-4 | 6.7% |
| 405 | 2 | 00:00 | period-start | 1-4 | 5.7% |
| 809 | 3 | 00:00 | period-start | 1-4 | 3.4% |
| 1013 | 3 | 15:41 | goal | 1-5 | 0.1% |
| 1065 | 3 | 19:29 | goal | 2-5 | 0.3% |
| 473 | 3 | 20:00 | game-end | 2-5 | 0.0% |