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Detroit Red Wings vs Toronto Maple Leafs Prediction (Dec 27, 2024)

Detroit Red Wings vs Toronto Maple Leafs — Dec 27, 2024

Page built: Nov 01, 2026 04:20 AM PST.

Detailed NHL game prediction for Detroit Red Wings vs Toronto Maple Leafs: pregame win probabilities, expected goals, and projected totals from our NHLForecasts model.

Explore more matchups on the NHL games calendar or full modeled schedule. See how this game impacts NHL playoff odds & Stanley Cup probabilities, or review team pages for longer-term outlooks for Detroit Red Wings and Toronto Maple Leafs.

Detroit Red Wings 42.3% Toronto Maple Leafs 57.7%
Pregame win probability

Expected goals: Detroit Red Wings 2.72 — Toronto Maple Leafs 3.17 • Median total: 5.9

Advanced matchup context

Reconstructed from earlier games. Research measures; the win probabilities above use the existing forecast model.

Pregame form · regulation five-on-five
Per-team for minus againstDETTOR
Net attempts / 60-10.13+1.35
Score-adjusted net attempts / 60-11.63+1.60
Net xG / 60-0.44+0.49
Score-adjusted net xG / 60-0.50+0.49

DET: last 30 eligible games · 1339 verified minutes · through 2024-12-23

TOR: last 30 eligible games · 1291 verified minutes · through 2024-12-23

Reading the form numbers

Net means created minus conceded. Rates use the last 30 eligible regular games, with at least 30 verified five-on-five minutes and 80% attempt retention per game. Score adjustment removes the fitted score-state effect while retaining team strength. Shot volume and xG are adjusted separately. These form replacements have not earned a place in the win model.

Where the attempts may come from

Expected share of each team's attempts
Shot categoryDETTOR
Rebound9.6%9.6%
Close range15.7%18.6%
Long range25.2%24.4%
Other49.5%47.3%

Profiles frozen 2024-12-01; observations through 2024-11-30. A 50/50 blend of each attack's history and the opposing defense's conceded mix.

These are shot shares, not chance counts or win probabilities. Categories are exclusive: rebounds first, then close (within 25 feet and 45°), long (50+ feet), and other.

After the game

Completed-game diagnostic · positive values favor DET.

Raw attempt differential+3.0
Neutral-score differential-3.6
Above expectation+3.4

44.0 verified 5v5 minutes; 92% attempt retention. These estimates use the game's observed score-state time and are separate from the pregame view.

What the shot count hides: findings, methods and limits →

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