Toronto Maple Leafs vs Washington Capitals Prediction (Dec 28, 2024)
Toronto Maple Leafs vs Washington Capitals — Dec 28, 2024
Detailed NHL game prediction for Toronto Maple Leafs vs Washington Capitals: pregame win probabilities, expected goals, and projected totals from our NHLForecasts model.
Explore more matchups on the NHL games calendar or full modeled schedule. See how this game impacts NHL playoff odds & Stanley Cup probabilities, or review team pages for longer-term outlooks for Toronto Maple Leafs and Washington Capitals.
Expected goals: Toronto Maple Leafs 2.57 — Washington Capitals 3.50 • Median total: 6.1
Advanced matchup context
Reconstructed from earlier games. Research measures; the win probabilities above use the existing forecast model.
| Per-team for minus against | TOR | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Net attempts / 60 | -0.83 | +0.88 |
| Score-adjusted net attempts / 60 | -0.12 | +2.59 |
| Net xG / 60 | +0.38 | +0.07 |
| Score-adjusted net xG / 60 | +0.41 | +0.15 |
TOR: last 30 eligible games · 1296 verified minutes · through 2024-12-27
WSH: last 30 eligible games · 1290 verified minutes · through 2024-12-23
Reading the form numbers
Net means created minus conceded. Rates use the last 30 eligible regular games, with at least 30 verified five-on-five minutes and 80% attempt retention per game. Score adjustment removes the fitted score-state effect while retaining team strength. Shot volume and xG are adjusted separately. These form replacements have not earned a place in the win model.
Where the attempts may come from
| Shot category | TOR | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Rebound | 10.0% | 10.1% |
| Close range | 18.6% | 17.8% |
| Long range | 24.3% | 26.7% |
| Other | 47.1% | 45.4% |
Profiles frozen 2024-12-01; observations through 2024-11-30. A 50/50 blend of each attack's history and the opposing defense's conceded mix.
These are shot shares, not chance counts or win probabilities. Categories are exclusive: rebounds first, then close (within 25 feet and 45°), long (50+ feet), and other.
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