Washington Capitals Playoff Odds & Team Stats
Washington Capitals
WSH
Eastern
Season Record:
3-3-0
(6 pts, 50.0%)
Last 5 games:
70% win rate
Points Percentage
50.0%
6 pts in 6 games
Overtime Record
0-0
OT/SO: 0 wins, 0 losses
Recent Expected Goals
3.18
For per game (last 10 games)
Expected Goals Against
4.06
Allowed per game (season-to-date)
xG Differential
-0.63
Expected goals for minus against (per game)
Goals Above Expected
-1.5
Actual goals for minus expected goals for
Flood Games
3
3W – 0L when a Flood occurred
Grip Games
0
0W – 0L when the Grip was held
Playoff Odds
52.0%
Chance to make playoffs.
Stanley Cup Odds
2.9%
Projected via season-long simulation.
Conference Outlook
6.4%
Eastern Conference title probability.
Team Style Profile
Percentiles vs the league this season (p100 = top). Style axes describe how a team plays (higher isn't better or worse); colored axes are evaluative (higher = better), and variance axes (finishing, goaltending) tend to regress — treat them as luck, not skill.
Offense
Shot Volume style
40.8/gm · p45
Slot Location style
28.8% · p53
Finishing variance
0.99 G/xG · p56
Shot Quality
0.087 xG/sh · p94
Defense
Shot Suppression
44.5/gm · p23
Slot Defense
30.9% allowed · p28
Goaltending variance
0.61 GA/xGA · p91
Quality Allowed
0.083 xG/sh · p22
Regression Watch
Washington Capitals is finishing 7% below expected (0.93). This often rebounds upward.
Top Scorers (xG Leaders)
| Player | GP | Unblocked attempts | xG | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Tuch | 6 | 27 | 2.8 | 3 |
| Dylan Strome | 6 | 17 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Ryan Leonard | 6 | 23 | 2.2 | 2 |
| Boone Jenner | 6 | 20 | 2.0 | 3 |
| Tom Wilson | 4 | 11 | 1.6 | 2 |
Team Trends (15-game rolling)
Recent Results
| Date | Opponent | Pred Win% | Exp For | Exp Against | xG For | xG Against | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-13 | CAR | 28.2% | 2.15 | 3.48 | 2.50 | 4.68 | L |
| 2026-10-11 | SEA | 58.2% | 3.07 | 2.98 | 3.76 | 4.89 | L |
| 2026-10-09 | NYR | 55.6% | 2.75 | 3.17 | 4.70 | 2.91 | W |
| 2026-10-07 | PIT | 42.9% | 2.61 | 3.34 | 3.85 | 3.72 | W |
| 2026-10-03 | TBL | 42.8% | 4.50 | 3.43 | 2.57 | 4.11 | L |
| 2026-10-02 | CAR | 51.2% | 4.61 | 5.00 | 3.09 | 4.03 | W |
| 2026-04-14 | CBJ | 39.2% | 2.76 | 3.58 | - | - | W |
| 2026-04-12 | PIT | 57.1% | 3.10 | 1.99 | - | - | W |
| 2026-04-11 | PIT | 40.4% | 3.19 | 3.49 | - | - | W |
| 2026-04-08 | TOR | 53.2% | 3.09 | 2.70 | - | - | W |
Upcoming Games
| Date | Local Time | Opponent | Pred Win% | Exp For | Exp Against |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-14 | 7:30 PM EDT | MTL | 50.6% | 3.50 | 3.09 |
| 2026-10-17 | 1:00 PM EDT | NJD | 33.9% | 2.79 | 3.74 |
| 2026-10-20 | 7:00 PM EDT | LAK | 64.2% | 3.75 | 2.70 |
| 2026-10-24 | 7:00 PM EDT | BUF | 48.8% | 3.95 | 3.12 |
| 2026-10-28 | 7:30 PM EDT | PHI | 81.2% | 3.88 | 2.50 |
| 2026-10-29 | 7:00 PM CDT | NSH | 46.3% | 3.00 | 3.04 |
| 2026-11-01 | 3:30 PM EST | MIN | 57.4% | 2.89 | 2.96 |
| 2026-11-03 | 7:00 PM EST | DAL | 58.6% | 3.36 | 2.65 |