Washington Capitals Playoff Odds & Team Stats
Washington Capitals
WSH
Eastern
Season Record:
43-30-9
(95 pts, 57.9%)
Last 5 games:
80% win rate
Points Percentage
57.9%
95 pts in 82 games
Overtime Record
6-9
OT/SO: 6 wins, 9 losses
Recent Expected Goals
3.04
For per game (last 10 games)
Expected Goals Against
3.45
Allowed per game (season-to-date)
xG Differential
+0.03
Expected goals for minus against (per game)
Goals Above Expected
-17.7
Actual goals for minus expected goals for
Flood Games
44
40W – 4L when a Flood occurred
Grip Games
3
1W – 2L when the Grip was held
Playoff Odds
52.0%
Chance to make playoffs.
Stanley Cup Odds
2.9%
Projected via season-long simulation.
Conference Outlook
6.4%
Eastern Conference title probability.
Team Style Profile
Percentiles vs the league this season (p100 = top). Style axes describe how a team plays (higher isn't better or worse); colored axes are evaluative (higher = better), and variance axes (finishing, goaltending) tend to regress — treat them as luck, not skill.
Offense
Shot Volume style
43.4/gm · p62
Slot Location style
29.8% · p78
Finishing variance
0.95 G/xG · p34
Shot Quality
0.078 xG/sh · p81
Defense
Shot Suppression
42.7/gm · p53
Slot Defense
29.3% allowed · p44
Goaltending variance
0.87 GA/xGA · p94
Quality Allowed
0.078 xG/sh · p19
Regression Watch
Washington Capitals is finishing 6% below expected (0.94). This often rebounds upward.
Top Scorers (xG Leaders)
| Player | GP | Shots | xG | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Ovechkin | 82 | 389 | 32.6 | 32 |
| Tom Wilson | 70 | 235 | 27.4 | 30 |
| Aliaksei Protas | 74 | 265 | 23.9 | 25 |
| Dylan Strome | 72 | 211 | 22.3 | 23 |
| Anthony Beauvillier | 74 | 233 | 22.0 | 16 |
Team Trends (15-game rolling)
Recent Results
| Date | Opponent | Pred Win% | Exp For | Exp Against | xG For | xG Against | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-14 | CBJ | 40.8% | 2.87 | 3.61 | 3.97 | 2.56 | W |
| 2026-04-12 | PIT | 55.6% | 3.35 | 2.31 | 2.25 | 3.09 | W |
| 2026-04-11 | PIT | 40.7% | 3.09 | 3.80 | 3.88 | 2.00 | W |
| 2026-04-08 | TOR | 56.6% | 3.11 | 2.96 | 3.38 | 2.19 | W |
| 2026-04-05 | NYR | 45.8% | 2.87 | 3.34 | 1.91 | 4.40 | L |
| 2026-04-04 | BUF | 47.8% | 3.10 | 3.12 | 2.72 | 3.33 | W |
| 2026-04-02 | NJD | 44.6% | 2.96 | 3.40 | 3.26 | 3.23 | L |
| 2026-03-31 | PHI | 51.3% | 3.32 | 3.21 | 2.71 | 3.80 | W |
| 2026-03-28 | VGK | 32.7% | 2.66 | 3.34 | 3.02 | 4.34 | W |
| 2026-03-26 | UTA | 41.5% | 3.07 | 3.34 | 3.09 | 5.83 | W |
Upcoming Games
| Date | Local Time | Opponent | Pred Win% | Exp For | Exp Against |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 | 7:00 PM EDT | CAR | 47.2% | 3.76 | 2.22 |
| 2026-10-03 | 7:00 PM EDT | TBL | 48.3% | 2.97 | 1.81 |
| 2026-10-07 | 7:30 PM EDT | PIT | 42.9% | 1.37 | 3.88 |
| 2026-10-09 | 7:00 PM EDT | NYR | 46.7% | 1.57 | 4.07 |
| 2026-10-11 | 5:00 PM EDT | SEA | 53.0% | 2.66 | 3.68 |
| 2026-10-13 | 6:45 PM EDT | CAR | 47.2% | 3.75 | 2.21 |
| 2026-10-14 | 7:30 PM EDT | MTL | 45.4% | 1.88 | 2.98 |
| 2026-10-17 | 1:00 PM EDT | NJD | 42.7% | 1.63 | 3.12 |