Buffalo Sabres Playoff Odds & Team Stats
Buffalo Sabres
BUF
Eastern
Season Record:
3-3-0
(6 pts, 50.0%)
Last 5 games:
50% win rate
Points Percentage
50.0%
6 pts in 6 games
Overtime Record
1-0
OT/SO: 1 wins, 0 losses
Recent Expected Goals
3.41
For per game (last 10 games)
Expected Goals Against
2.94
Allowed per game (season-to-date)
xG Differential
+0.40
Expected goals for minus against (per game)
Goals Above Expected
-4.0
Actual goals for minus expected goals for
Flood Games
2
2W – 0L when a Flood occurred
Grip Games
0
0W – 0L when the Grip was held
Playoff Odds
55.3%
Chance to make playoffs.
Stanley Cup Odds
3.7%
Projected via season-long simulation.
Conference Outlook
7.1%
Eastern Conference title probability.
Team Style Profile
Percentiles vs the league this season (p100 = top). Style axes describe how a team plays (higher isn't better or worse); colored axes are evaluative (higher = better), and variance axes (finishing, goaltending) tend to regress — treat them as luck, not skill.
Offense
Shot Volume style
44.0/gm · p66
Slot Location style
31.4% · p78
Finishing variance
0.68 G/xG · p12
Shot Quality
0.074 xG/sh · p44
Defense
Shot Suppression
35.4/gm · p84
Slot Defense
29.9% allowed · p41
Goaltending variance
1.36 GA/xGA · p12
Quality Allowed
0.079 xG/sh · p41
Regression Watch
Buffalo Sabres is finishing 20% below expected (0.80). This often rebounds upward.
Top Scorers (xG Leaders)
| Player | GP | Unblocked attempts | xG | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tage Thompson | 6 | 39 | 3.1 | 4 |
| Zach Benson | 6 | 23 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Noah Ostlund | 6 | 26 | 2.6 | 2 |
| Jack Quinn | 6 | 27 | 2.0 | 2 |
| Josh Norris | 6 | 12 | 1.3 | 0 |
Team Trends (15-game rolling)
Recent Results
| Date | Opponent | Pred Win% | Exp For | Exp Against | xG For | xG Against | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | FLA | 52.8% | 3.11 | 2.88 | 3.80 | 3.67 | W |
| 2026-10-10 | UTA | 58.2% | 2.87 | 3.18 | 2.94 | 4.68 | L |
| 2026-10-08 | DAL | 53.9% | 2.83 | 3.06 | 2.79 | 2.20 | L |
| 2026-10-06 | MIN | 60.4% | 3.89 | 2.86 | 3.92 | 1.88 | W |
| 2026-10-03 | CHI | 84.8% | 4.41 | 2.19 | 4.09 | 2.56 | W |
| 2026-10-01 | CBJ | 57.1% | 3.26 | 2.53 | 2.50 | 2.63 | L |
| 2026-05-18 | MTL | 67.4% | 3.43 | 2.85 | - | - | L |
| 2026-05-16 | MTL | 56.6% | 3.46 | 2.91 | - | - | W |
| 2026-05-14 | MTL | 63.6% | 3.54 | 2.93 | - | - | L |
| 2026-05-12 | MTL | 60.0% | 3.27 | 3.20 | - | - | W |
Upcoming Games
| Date | Local Time | Opponent | Pred Win% | Exp For | Exp Against |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-13 | 6:30 PM EDT | MTL | 42.2% | 3.32 | 3.44 |
| 2026-10-15 | 7:00 PM EDT | TOR | 62.7% | 3.59 | 2.71 |
| 2026-10-17 | 7:00 PM EDT | MTL | 52.4% | 3.32 | 3.41 |
| 2026-10-21 | 7:30 PM EDT | PHI | 78.1% | 4.88 | 2.77 |
| 2026-10-24 | 7:00 PM EDT | WSH | 47.4% | 3.31 | 3.20 |
| 2026-10-27 | 7:30 PM PDT | SJS | 78.8% | 3.44 | 1.84 |
| 2026-10-29 | 7:00 PM PDT | ANA | 56.4% | 3.18 | 3.07 |
| 2026-10-31 | 1:00 PM PDT | LAK | 61.9% | 3.10 | 2.71 |