Montreal Canadiens Playoff Odds & Team Stats
Montreal Canadiens
MTL
Eastern
Season Record:
57-30-14
(128 pts, 63.4%)
Last 5 games:
40% win rate
Points Percentage
63.4%
128 pts in 101 games
Overtime Record
17-14
OT/SO: 17 wins, 14 losses
Recent Expected Goals
2.62
For per game (last 10 games)
Expected Goals Against
3.56
Allowed per game (season-to-date)
xG Differential
-0.12
Expected goals for minus against (per game)
Goals Above Expected
-3.6
Actual goals for minus expected goals for
Flood Games
44
36W – 8L when a Flood occurred
Grip Games
5
5W – 0L when the Grip was held
Playoff Odds
52.4%
Chance to make playoffs.
Stanley Cup Odds
2.8%
Projected via season-long simulation.
Conference Outlook
5.9%
Eastern Conference title probability.
Team Style Profile
Percentiles vs the league this season (p100 = top). Style axes describe how a team plays (higher isn't better or worse); colored axes are evaluative (higher = better), and variance axes (finishing, goaltending) tend to regress — treat them as luck, not skill.
Offense
Shot Volume style
40.5/gm · p34
Slot Location style
28.1% · p44
Finishing variance
1.01 G/xG · p72
Shot Quality
0.084 xG/sh · p97
Defense
Shot Suppression
42.3/gm · p59
Slot Defense
28.4% allowed · p56
Goaltending variance
0.89 GA/xGA · p88
Quality Allowed
0.081 xG/sh · p9
Top Scorers (xG Leaders)
| Player | GP | Shots | xG | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Caufield | 100 | 459 | 48.2 | 63 |
| Juraj Slafkovský | 98 | 382 | 41.5 | 36 |
| Nick Suzuki | 100 | 375 | 37.4 | 33 |
| Ivan Demidov | 88 | 270 | 25.5 | 24 |
| Oliver Kapanen | 78 | 207 | 22.3 | 23 |
Team Trends (15-game rolling)
Recent Results
| Date | Opponent | Pred Win% | Exp For | Exp Against | xG For | xG Against | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-29 | CAR | 20.9% | 1.96 | 4.18 | 2.77 | 5.18 | L |
| 2026-05-27 | CAR | 27.7% | 1.46 | 3.06 | 1.04 | 6.49 | L |
| 2026-05-25 | CAR | 33.3% | 2.63 | 3.25 | 1.80 | 4.49 | L |
| 2026-05-23 | CAR | 20.4% | 2.07 | 3.79 | 1.62 | 2.84 | L |
| 2026-05-21 | CAR | 19.4% | 3.18 | 3.90 | 3.45 | 3.31 | W |
| 2026-05-18 | BUF | 34.2% | 2.95 | 3.52 | 2.90 | 4.49 | W |
| 2026-05-16 | BUF | 39.7% | 3.04 | 3.47 | 2.56 | 5.10 | L |
| 2026-05-14 | BUF | 38.3% | 3.01 | 3.42 | 3.66 | 3.84 | W |
| 2026-05-12 | BUF | 40.5% | 2.87 | 3.15 | 3.62 | 3.51 | L |
| 2026-05-10 | BUF | 50.6% | 3.02 | 3.03 | 5.86 | 3.64 | W |
Upcoming Games
| Date | Local Time | Opponent | Pred Win% | Exp For | Exp Against |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | 7:00 PM EDT | PIT | 52.9% | 3.04 | 1.79 |
| 2026-10-06 | 7:00 PM EDT | CAR | 32.5% | 1.81 | 4.68 |
| 2026-10-08 | 7:00 PM EDT | NSH | 51.6% | 2.98 | 2.59 |
| 2026-10-10 | 7:00 PM EDT | DET | 56.0% | 3.23 | 2.75 |
| 2026-10-13 | 6:30 PM EDT | BUF | 45.5% | 2.43 | 3.07 |
| 2026-10-14 | 7:30 PM EDT | WSH | 54.6% | 2.98 | 1.88 |
| 2026-10-17 | 7:00 PM EDT | BUF | 45.5% | 2.45 | 3.10 |
| 2026-10-20 | 7:00 PM EDT | SJS | 47.7% | 2.57 | 3.78 |