Calgary Flames at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2024-03-07 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 6 Calgary Flames

🚨 Upset Loss (67% underdog)

Win Probability

TBL: 67.3%

CGY: 32.7%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.12

CGY: 2.73

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 41%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • TBL at home vs CGY: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-22	CGY 4 - 3 TBL	CGY	CGY
2025-11-26	TBL 5 - 1 CGY	TBL	TBL
2025-02-27	TBL 3 - 0 CGY	TBL	TBL
2024-12-12	CGY 3 - 8 TBL	TBL	CGY
2024-03-07	TBL 3 - 6 CGY	CGY	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	15	0	0.61
1	CGY	12	0	1.01
2	TBL	7	1	0.42
2	CGY	11	0	0.62
3	TBL	13	0	0.87
3	CGY	11	1	1.34

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 67.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 6 Calgary Flames

Expected: 3.1 - 2.7