Tampa Bay Lightning at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2024-04-03 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 1 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning

🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)

Win Probability

TOR: 55.2%

TBL: 44.8%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.47

TBL: 3.18

Total Goals

Median: 5.6

Over 5.5: 51%

Over 6.5: 36%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • TOR at home vs TBL: 4-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-07	TOR 2 - 5 TBL	TBL	TBL
2026-02-25	TBL 4 - 2 TOR	TBL	TBL
2025-12-08	TOR 2 - 0 TBL	TOR	TOR
2025-04-09	TBL 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	TBL
2025-01-20	TOR 5 - 3 TBL	TOR	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	17	1	1.35
1	TBL	8	0	0.38
2	TOR	19	0	1.12
2	TBL	15	0	1.27
3	TOR	11	0	0.32
3	TBL	15	2	1.32

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 1 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.5 - 3.2