Tampa Bay Lightning at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2024-10-21 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 5 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning

🚨 Upset Win (53% underdog)

Win Probability

TOR: 46.6%

TBL: 53.4%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.34

TBL: 3.71

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 42%

TOR

Anthony Stolarz - 6-5-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.51 GAA

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	Anthony Stolarz	34	32	2	94.1%	3.88	3	1.88
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	29	24	5	82.8%	4.49	2	-0.51

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • TOR at home vs TBL: 4-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-07	TOR 2 - 5 TBL	TBL	TOR
2026-02-25	TBL 4 - 2 TOR	TBL	TBL
2025-12-08	TOR 2 - 0 TBL	TOR	TOR
2025-04-09	TBL 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	TBL
2025-01-20	TOR 5 - 3 TBL	TOR	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	15	0	1.43
1	TBL	14	1	1.13
2	TOR	17	1	1.10
2	TBL	21	2	1.94
3	TOR	19	1	1.96
3	TBL	12	0	0.81

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 7.1

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 5 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.3 - 3.7