Tampa Bay Lightning at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2024-10-21 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 5 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning

Win Probability

TOR: 54.5%

TBL: 45.5%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.33

TBL: 2.97

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 42%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • TOR at home vs TBL: 4-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-07	TOR 2 - 5 TBL	TBL	TBL
2026-02-25	TBL 4 - 2 TOR	TBL	TBL
2025-12-08	TOR 2 - 0 TBL	TOR	TOR
2025-04-09	TBL 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	TBL
2025-01-20	TOR 5 - 3 TBL	TOR	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	15	0	1.43
1	TBL	14	1	1.13
2	TOR	17	1	1.10
2	TBL	21	2	1.94
3	TOR	19	1	1.96
3	TBL	12	0	0.81

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 5 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.3 - 3.0