Toronto Maple Leafs at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2024-11-30 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 5 Toronto Maple Leafs

🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)

Win Probability

TBL: 54.9%

TOR: 45.1%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.41

TOR: 3.19

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 47%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • TBL at home vs TOR: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-07	TOR 2 - 5 TBL	TBL	TBL
2026-02-25	TBL 4 - 2 TOR	TBL	TBL
2025-12-08	TOR 2 - 0 TBL	TOR	TOR
2025-04-09	TBL 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	TBL
2025-01-20	TOR 5 - 3 TBL	TOR	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	13	1	0.96
1	TOR	9	1	0.93
2	TBL	16	1	1.21
2	TOR	15	0	0.54
3	TBL	28	1	1.66
3	TOR	8	3	1.28

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 5 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.4 - 3.2