Tampa Bay Lightning at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2025-01-21 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 3 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning

🚨 Upset Win (52% underdog)

Win Probability

MTL: 48.1%

TBL: 51.9%

Expected Goals

MTL: 2.92

TBL: 3.21

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 47%

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	35	33	2	94.3%	4.73	7	2.73
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	22	19	3	86.4%	3.01	4	0.01

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • MTL at home vs TBL: 3-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-03	TBL 1 - 2 MTL	MTL	TBL
2026-05-01	MTL 0 - 1 TBL	TBL	MTL
2026-04-29	TBL 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	TBL
2026-04-26	MTL 2 - 3 TBL	TBL	MTL
2026-04-24	MTL 3 - 2 TBL	MTL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	10	2	0.78
1	TBL	20	4	1.93
2	MTL	12	0	0.51
2	TBL	11	1	1.02
3	MTL	15	2	1.72
3	TBL	21	2	1.78

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 3 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 2.9 - 3.2