Ottawa Senators at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2025-02-04 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 3 Ottawa Senators

Win Probability

TBL: 64.0%

OTT: 36.0%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.65

OTT: 2.96

Total Goals

Median: 5.7

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 45%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • TBL at home vs OTT: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-07	OTT 6 - 2 TBL	OTT	OTT
2026-03-28	TBL 4 - 2 OTT	TBL	OTT
2025-10-09	TBL 4 - 5 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-04-03	OTT 2 - 1 TBL	OTT	TBL
2025-02-06	TBL 5 - 1 OTT	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	23	0	1.36
1	OTT	9	1	0.89
2	TBL	19	0	1.03
2	OTT	14	0	0.82
3	TBL	18	3	2.05
3	OTT	11	2	1.12

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 64.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 3 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 3.6 - 3.0