Ottawa Senators at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2025-02-04 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 3 Ottawa Senators

Win Probability

TBL: 66.9%

OTT: 33.1%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.63

OTT: 2.74

Total Goals

Median: 5.7

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 43%

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

OTT

Linus Ullmark - 14-8-5 | 0.881 SV% | 2.95 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	28	25	3	89.3%	2.83	3	-0.17
OTT	Linus Ullmark	38	34	4	89.5%	4.45	3	0.45

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • TBL at home vs OTT: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-07	OTT 6 - 2 TBL	OTT	OTT
2026-03-28	TBL 4 - 2 OTT	TBL	TBL
2025-10-09	TBL 4 - 5 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-04-03	OTT 2 - 1 TBL	OTT	TBL
2025-02-06	TBL 5 - 1 OTT	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	23	0	1.36
1	OTT	9	1	0.89
2	TBL	19	0	1.03
2	OTT	14	0	0.82
3	TBL	18	3	2.05
3	OTT	11	2	1.12

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 66.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 3 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 3.6 - 2.7