Ottawa Senators at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions
2025-03-03 • Capital One Arena
Washington Capitals 5 - 4 Ottawa Senators
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
WSH: 64.2%
OTT: 35.8%
Expected Goals
WSH: 3.47
OTT: 2.60
Total Goals
Median: 6.7
Over 5.5: 67%
Over 6.5: 54%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
WSH
Logan Thompson - 31-21-6 | 0.912 SV% | 2.44 GAA
OTT
Linus Ullmark - 28-12-8 | 0.891 SV% | 2.73 GAA
| Stat | WSH | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.913 | 0.881 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.912 | 0.921 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.925 | 0.917 |
| GAA | 2.39 | 2.95 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • WSH at home vs OTT: 3-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-18 | WSH 4 - 1 OTT | WSH | OTT |
| 2026-01-01 | OTT 4 - 3 WSH | OTT | OTT |
| 2025-10-25 | WSH 1 - 7 OTT | OTT | WSH |
| 2025-03-03 | WSH 5 - 4 OTT | WSH | WSH |
| 2025-01-30 | OTT 5 - 4 WSH | OTT | OTT |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 01:41 | WSH | Goal |
| 1 | 03:34 | WSH | Goal |
| 2 | 06:53 | WSH | Goal |
| 2 | 12:18 | WSH | Goal |
| 3 | 01:05 | WSH | Goal |
| 3 | 08:01 | WSH | Goal |
| 3 | 12:43 | WSH | Goal |
| 3 | 18:52 | WSH | Goal |
| 5 | 00:00 | WSH | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 64.2%
Total Goals
Actual: 9.0
Expected: 6.1
Score Breakdown
Washington Capitals 5 - 4 Ottawa Senators
Expected: 3.5 - 2.6
Like this analysis? Get it daily.
Short, data-driven emails. Unsubscribe any time.