Ottawa Senators at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2025-03-03 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 5 - 4 Ottawa Senators

Win Probability

WSH: 50.4%

OTT: 49.6%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.41

OTT: 2.88

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 46%

WSH

Logan Thompson - 15-11-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.39 GAA

OTT

Linus Ullmark - 14-8-5 | 0.881 SV% | 2.95 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	Logan Thompson	40	36	4	90.0%	4.52	3	0.52
OTT	Linus Ullmark	44	39	5	88.6%	5.12	3	0.12

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 53% • WSH at home vs OTT: 4-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-18	WSH 4 - 1 OTT	WSH	OTT
2026-01-01	OTT 4 - 3 WSH	OTT	OTT
2025-10-25	WSH 1 - 7 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-03-03	WSH 5 - 4 OTT	WSH	WSH
2025-01-30	OTT 5 - 4 WSH	OTT	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	23	1	1.81
1	OTT	16	0	0.89
2	WSH	15	1	1.16
2	OTT	18	1	1.03
3	WSH	14	0	1.13
3	OTT	18	2	1.81
4	WSH	2	0	0.06
4	OTT	6	0	0.55
5	WSH	3	1	0.95
5	OTT	3	0	0.24

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 50.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 5 - 4 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 3.4 - 2.9