Buffalo Sabres at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions
2025-03-06 • Amalie Arena
Tampa Bay Lightning 6 - 5 Buffalo Sabres
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TBL: 65.2%
BUF: 34.8%
Expected Goals
TBL: 3.50
BUF: 2.80
Total Goals
Median: 6.1
Over 5.5: 59%
Over 6.5: 46%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 28-7-3 | 0.920 SV% | 2.11 GAA
BUF
Alex Lyon - 14-8-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.72 GAA
| Stat | TBL | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.913 | 0.906 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.921 | 0.934 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.885 | — |
| GAA | 2.33 | 2.82 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 62% • TBL at home vs BUF: 3-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-03 | TBL 4 - 3 BUF | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-04-13 | TBL 7 - 4 BUF | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-04-05 | BUF 3 - 2 TBL | BUF | BUF |
| 2025-03-06 | TBL 6 - 5 BUF | TBL | TBL |
| 2024-04-15 | TBL 2 - 4 BUF | BUF | TBL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 05:01 | TBL | Goal |
| 1 | 05:17 | TBL | Goal |
| 1 | 05:53 | TBL | Goal |
| 1 | 08:20 | TBL | Goal |
| 1 | 17:09 | BUF | Goal |
| 2 | 00:58 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 09:35 | BUF | Goal |
| 2 | 12:40 | BUF | Goal |
| 2 | 17:43 | BUF | Goal |
| 2 | 18:46 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 01:40 | TBL | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 65.2%
Total Goals
Actual: 11.0
Expected: 6.3
Score Breakdown
Tampa Bay Lightning 6 - 5 Buffalo Sabres
Expected: 3.5 - 2.8