Buffalo Sabres at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2025-03-06 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 6 - 5 Buffalo Sabres

Win Probability

TBL: 57.0%

BUF: 43.0%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.73

BUF: 2.91

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 47%

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	33	28	5	84.8%	2.61	0	-2.39
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	26	20	6	76.9%	2.87	2	-3.13

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • TBL at home vs BUF: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-06	BUF 4 - 2 TBL	BUF	TBL
2026-03-08	BUF 8 - 7 TBL	BUF	TBL
2026-02-28	TBL 2 - 6 BUF	BUF	TBL
2026-02-03	TBL 4 - 3 BUF	TBL	TBL
2025-04-13	TBL 7 - 4 BUF	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	11	0	0.48
1	BUF	16	0	0.83
2	TBL	17	1	1.28
2	BUF	12	0	0.71
3	TBL	10	1	1.10
3	BUF	16	0	1.07

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 6 - 5 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.7 - 2.9