Tampa Bay Lightning at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2025-03-23 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 4 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning

Win Probability

VGK: 58.1%

TBL: 41.9%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.32

TBL: 2.31

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 44%

VGK

Ilya Samsonov - 16-9-4 | 0.891 SV% | 2.82 GAA

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	Ilya Samsonov	37	35	2	94.6%	4.16	3	2.16
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	30	26	4	86.7%	5.11	5	1.11

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • VGK at home vs TBL: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-06	VGK 3 - 6 TBL	TBL	VGK
2025-10-26	TBL 2 - 1 VGK	TBL	TBL
2025-03-23	VGK 4 - 2 TBL	VGK	VGK
2024-10-17	TBL 4 - 3 VGK	TBL	TBL
2024-03-19	VGK 3 - 5 TBL	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	18	3	1.93
1	TBL	20	0	1.16
2	VGK	11	0	0.85
2	TBL	21	2	1.66
3	VGK	15	2	2.32
3	TBL	15	1	1.34

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 58.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 5.6

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 4 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.3 - 2.3