Vegas Golden Knights at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions
2025-04-05 • Scotiabank Saddledome
Calgary Flames 2 - 3 Vegas Golden Knights
🚨 Upset Loss (60% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
CGY: 59.8%
VGK: 40.2%
Expected Goals
CGY: 3.44
VGK: 3.08
Total Goals
Median: 6.2
Over 5.5: 64%
Over 6.5: 47%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
CGY
Dustin Wolf - 16-21-3 | 0.895 SV% | 3.00 GAA
VGK
Akira Schmid - 16-6-6 | 0.895 SV% | 2.53 GAA
| Stat | CGY | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.901 | 0.895 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.877 | 0.891 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.833 | 0.886 |
| GAA | 2.82 | 2.50 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • CGY at home vs VGK: 4-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-20 | CGY 6 - 3 VGK | CGY | CGY |
| 2025-10-18 | VGK 6 - 1 CGY | VGK | VGK |
| 2025-10-14 | CGY 2 - 4 VGK | VGK | CGY |
| 2025-04-15 | CGY 5 - 4 VGK | CGY | CGY |
| 2025-04-05 | CGY 2 - 3 VGK | VGK | CGY |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 18:39 | VGK | Goal |
| 2 | 09:57 | VGK | Goal |
| 2 | 19:52 | VGK | Goal |
| 3 | 00:43 | CGY | Goal |
| 4 | 04:31 | VGK | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 59.8%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 6.5
Score Breakdown
Calgary Flames 2 - 3 Vegas Golden Knights
Expected: 3.4 - 3.1