Toronto Maple Leafs at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2025-04-09 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs

🚨 Upset Loss (74% underdog)

Win Probability

TBL: 74.2%

TOR: 25.8%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.39

TOR: 2.87

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 42%

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

TOR

Anthony Stolarz - 6-5-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.51 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	31	27	4	87.1%	4.26	3	0.26
TOR	Anthony Stolarz	28	25	3	89.3%	3.75	3	0.75

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • TBL at home vs TOR: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-07	TOR 2 - 5 TBL	TBL	TOR
2026-02-25	TBL 4 - 2 TOR	TBL	TBL
2025-12-08	TOR 2 - 0 TBL	TOR	TOR
2025-04-09	TBL 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	TBL
2025-01-20	TOR 5 - 3 TBL	TOR	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	16	0	0.94
1	TOR	15	1	1.49
2	TBL	27	0	1.48
2	TOR	11	0	0.21
3	TBL	7	1	0.68
3	TOR	17	1	1.96
4	TBL	4	2	0.66
4	TOR	3	1	0.60

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 74.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.4 - 2.9