Toronto Maple Leafs at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2025-05-01 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 2 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs

🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)

Win Probability

OTT: 52.2%

TOR: 47.8%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.18

TOR: 3.13

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 45%

OTT

Linus Ullmark - 14-8-5 | 0.881 SV% | 2.95 GAA

TOR

Anthony Stolarz - 6-5-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.51 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	Linus Ullmark	23	19	4	82.6%	3.17	2	-0.83
TOR	Anthony Stolarz	23	21	2	91.3%	2.06	0	0.06

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 58% • OTT at home vs TOR: 6-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-03	TOR 2 - 3 OTT	OTT	TOR
2026-04-15	OTT 3 - 1 TOR	OTT	OTT
2026-03-21	OTT 5 - 2 TOR	OTT	OTT
2026-02-28	TOR 2 - 5 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-12-27	TOR 7 - 5 OTT	TOR	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	6	0	0.52
1	TOR	10	0	0.76
2	OTT	14	0	0.75
2	TOR	14	0	0.73
3	OTT	15	0	0.80
3	TOR	16	2	1.68

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 2 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.2 - 3.1