Ottawa Senators at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2025-10-09 • Benchmark International Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 5 Ottawa Senators

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

TBL: 42.9%

OTT: 57.1%

Expected Goals

TBL: 2.96

OTT: 3.73

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 53%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

OTT

Linus Ullmark - 14-8-5 | 0.881 SV% | 2.95 GAA

Stat	TBL	OTT
Season SV%	0.913	0.881
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.33	2.95

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	34	29	5	85.3%	3.48	1	-1.52
OTT	Linus Ullmark	25	21	4	84.0%	2.30	2	-1.70

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • TBL at home vs OTT: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-07	OTT 6 - 2 TBL	OTT	OTT
2026-03-28	TBL 4 - 2 OTT	TBL	TBL
2025-10-09	TBL 4 - 5 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-04-03	OTT 2 - 1 TBL	OTT	TBL
2025-02-06	TBL 5 - 1 OTT	TBL	TBL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	20	2	1.41
1	OTT	15	0	1.34
2	TBL	12	0	0.73
2	OTT	20	0	1.13
3	TBL	6	0	0.16
3	OTT	11	1	1.01

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown