New York Islanders at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2025-10-09 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 4 - 3 New York Islanders

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

PIT: 66.8%

NYI: 33.2%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.45

NYI: 2.61

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 42%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

Stat	PIT	NYI
Season SV%	0.892	0.910
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.12	2.55

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Tristan Jarry	37	34	3	91.9%	3.48	2	0.48
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	28	24	4	85.7%	3.10	5	-0.90

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • PIT at home vs NYI: 4-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-30	NYI 3 - 8 PIT	PIT	PIT
2026-02-03	NYI 5 - 4 PIT	NYI	PIT
2025-10-09	PIT 4 - 3 NYI	PIT	PIT
2025-03-18	PIT 2 - 4 NYI	NYI	PIT
2024-12-29	PIT 3 - 2 NYI	PIT	PIT

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	15	2	0.95
1	NYI	16	0	0.90
2	PIT	13	2	0.97
2	NYI	16	1	1.58
3	PIT	13	1	1.18
3	NYI	17	1	1.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 66.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown