Tampa Bay Lightning at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2025-10-14 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 3 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning (OT)

Win Probability

WSH: 59.5%

TBL: 40.5%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.01

TBL: 3.34

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 43%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • WSH at home vs TBL: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-22	WSH 3 - 5 TBL	TBL	WSH
2025-11-08	TBL 3 - 2 WSH	TBL	TBL
2025-10-14	WSH 3 - 2 TBL	WSH	WSH
2025-03-01	WSH 1 - 3 TBL	TBL	WSH
2024-11-27	TBL 4 - 5 WSH	WSH	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	9	0	0.31
1	TBL	11	2	1.00
2	WSH	19	0	0.93
2	TBL	10	0	0.66
3	WSH	14	0	1.02
3	TBL	8	1	0.54
4	WSH	5	1	0.73
4	TBL	0	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 59.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 3 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.0 - 3.3