New York Islanders at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2025-10-18 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 4 - 5 New York Islanders

🚨 Upset Loss (61% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

OTT: 61.2%

NYI: 38.8%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.25

NYI: 2.81

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 43%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

OTT

Linus Ullmark - 14-8-5 | 0.881 SV% | 2.95 GAA

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

Stat	OTT	NYI
Season SV%	0.881	0.910
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.95	2.55

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	Linus Ullmark	23	18	5	78.3%	3.32	4	-1.68
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	32	28	4	87.5%	2.82	1	-1.18

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • OTT at home vs NYI: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-11	NYI 0 - 3 OTT	OTT	OTT
2026-03-19	OTT 3 - 2 NYI	OTT	OTT
2025-10-18	OTT 4 - 5 NYI	NYI	OTT
2025-01-14	NYI 0 - 2 OTT	OTT	NYI
2024-12-08	OTT 2 - 4 NYI	NYI	OTT

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	14	0	0.94
1	NYI	12	1	0.89
2	OTT	20	1	1.37
2	NYI	13	2	1.49
3	OTT	8	0	0.50
3	NYI	12	1	0.94

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 61.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown