Calgary Flames at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2025-10-28 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 4 - 3 Calgary Flames

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

TOR: 53.9%

CGY: 46.1%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.57

CGY: 2.88

Total Goals

Median: 5.6

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 41%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

TOR

Anthony Stolarz - 6-5-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.51 GAA

CGY

Dustin Wolf - 14-14-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.82 GAA

Stat	TOR	CGY
Season SV%	0.884	0.901
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.51	2.82

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	Anthony Stolarz	29	26	3	89.7%	3.03	2	0.03
CGY	Dustin Wolf	37	33	4	89.2%	3.88	2	-0.12

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • TOR at home vs CGY: 5-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-02	CGY 2 - 4 TOR	TOR	TOR
2025-10-28	TOR 4 - 3 CGY	TOR	TOR
2025-03-17	TOR 6 - 2 CGY	TOR	TOR
2025-02-04	CGY 3 - 6 TOR	TOR	CGY
2024-01-18	CGY 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	TOR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	19	0	1.34
1	CGY	12	0	0.79
2	TOR	19	1	1.27
2	CGY	14	0	0.98
3	TOR	13	1	1.28
3	CGY	13	2	1.26

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown