New York Rangers at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2025-11-12 • Benchmark International Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 7 New York Rangers

🚨 Upset Loss (50% underdog)

Win Probability

TBL: 50.4%

NYR: 49.6%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.05

NYR: 3.17

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 42%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • TBL at home vs NYR: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-15	TBL 2 - 4 NYR	NYR	TBL
2025-11-29	NYR 1 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-11-12	TBL 3 - 7 NYR	NYR	TBL
2025-04-17	NYR 4 - 0 TBL	NYR	NYR
2025-04-07	NYR 1 - 5 TBL	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	14	1	1.18
1	NYR	11	0	0.80
2	TBL	19	0	1.16
2	NYR	6	1	0.42
3	TBL	25	2	2.33
3	NYR	13	1	2.06

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 10.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 7 New York Rangers

Expected: 3.1 - 3.2