Vancouver Canucks at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2025-11-16 • Benchmark International Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 6 Vancouver Canucks

🚨 Upset Loss (73% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

TBL: 72.8%

VAN: 27.2%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.62

VAN: 2.69

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

TBL

Jonas Johansson - 9-6-1 | 0.894 SV% | 2.83 GAA

VAN

Kevin Lankinen - 6-10-3 | 0.885 SV% | 3.41 GAA

Stat	TBL	VAN
Season SV%	0.894	0.885
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.83	3.41

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Jonas Johansson	18	12	6	66.7%	2.29	2	-3.71
VAN	Kevin Lankinen	30	28	2	93.3%	3.93	6	1.93

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • TBL at home vs VAN: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-19	VAN 2 - 6 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-11-16	TBL 2 - 6 VAN	VAN	TBL
2024-12-08	VAN 2 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2024-10-15	TBL 4 - 1 VAN	TBL	TBL
2023-12-12	VAN 4 - 1 TBL	VAN	TBL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	21	3	1.77
1	VAN	3	0	0.10
2	TBL	9	1	0.88
2	VAN	8	1	0.85
3	TBL	19	2	1.28
3	VAN	16	1	1.34

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 72.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown