Toronto Maple Leafs at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions
2025-11-22 • Centre Bell
Montreal Canadiens 5 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
MTL: 61.6%
TOR: 38.4%
Expected Goals
MTL: 3.00
TOR: 2.69
Total Goals
Median: 5.6
Over 5.5: 53%
Over 6.5: 35%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
MTL
Jakub Dobes - 18-5-4 | 0.892 SV% | 2.96 GAA
TOR
Joseph Woll - 13-7-4 | 0.908 SV% | 2.92 GAA
| Stat | MTL | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.889 | 0.914 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.903 | 0.910 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.939 | 0.840 |
| GAA | 3.01 | 2.74 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • MTL at home vs TOR: 2-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-06 | TOR 1 - 2 MTL | MTL | TOR |
| 2025-11-22 | MTL 5 - 2 TOR | MTL | MTL |
| 2025-10-08 | TOR 5 - 2 MTL | TOR | TOR |
| 2025-04-12 | TOR 1 - 0 MTL | TOR | TOR |
| 2025-01-18 | MTL 3 - 7 TOR | TOR | MTL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13:33 | MTL | Goal |
| 1 | 12:11 | MTL | Goal |
| 2 | 17:19 | MTL | Goal |
| 2 | 13:11 | MTL | Goal |
| 2 | 04:09 | MTL | Goal |
| 3 | 17:50 | MTL | Goal |
| 3 | 14:55 | MTL | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 61.6%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 5.7
Score Breakdown
Montreal Canadiens 5 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs
Expected: 3.0 - 2.7