Tampa Bay Lightning at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2025-11-22 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 3 - 5 Tampa Bay Lightning

🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

WSH: 52.1%

TBL: 47.9%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.46

TBL: 3.13

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 50%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

WSH

Logan Thompson - 15-11-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.39 GAA

TBL

Jonas Johansson - 9-6-1 | 0.894 SV% | 2.83 GAA

Stat	WSH	TBL
Season SV%	0.913	0.894
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.39	2.83

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	Logan Thompson	16	11	5	68.8%	2.68	3	-2.32
TBL	Jonas Johansson	32	29	3	90.6%	4.17	4	1.17

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • WSH at home vs TBL: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-22	WSH 3 - 5 TBL	TBL	WSH
2025-11-08	TBL 3 - 2 WSH	TBL	TBL
2025-10-14	WSH 3 - 2 TBL	WSH	WSH
2025-03-01	WSH 1 - 3 TBL	TBL	TBL
2024-11-27	TBL 4 - 5 WSH	WSH	TBL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	15	1	1.39
1	TBL	11	1	1.09
2	WSH	16	2	1.30
2	TBL	6	0	0.39
3	WSH	17	1	1.48
3	TBL	9	2	1.20

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown