Tampa Bay Lightning at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions
2025-11-22 • Capital One Arena
Washington Capitals 3 - 5 Tampa Bay Lightning
🚨 Upset Loss (58% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
WSH: 58.2%
TBL: 41.8%
Expected Goals
WSH: 3.25
TBL: 3.49
Total Goals
Median: 7.0
Over 5.5: 68%
Over 6.5: 56%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
WSH
Logan Thompson - 20-16-4 | 0.913 SV% | 2.41 GAA
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 28-7-3 | 0.920 SV% | 2.11 GAA
| Stat | WSH | TBL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.913 | 0.913 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.904 | 0.921 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.800 | 0.914 |
| GAA | 2.39 | 2.33 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • WSH at home vs TBL: 2-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-22 | WSH 3 - 5 TBL | TBL | WSH |
| 2025-11-08 | TBL 3 - 2 WSH | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-10-14 | WSH 3 - 2 TBL | WSH | WSH |
| 2025-03-01 | WSH 1 - 3 TBL | TBL | WSH |
| 2024-11-27 | TBL 4 - 5 WSH | WSH | WSH |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 18:19 | TBL | Goal |
| 1 | 11:36 | TBL | Goal |
| 1 | 05:21 | TBL | Goal |
| 1 | 02:53 | WSH | Goal |
| 1 | 01:06 | WSH | Goal |
| 2 | 05:26 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 15:51 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 05:24 | TBL | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 58.2%
Total Goals
Actual: 8.0
Expected: 6.7
Score Breakdown
Washington Capitals 3 - 5 Tampa Bay Lightning
Expected: 3.2 - 3.5