Tampa Bay Lightning at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2025-11-22 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 3 - 5 Tampa Bay Lightning

🚨 Upset Loss (57% underdog)

Win Probability

WSH: 56.8%

TBL: 43.2%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.57

TBL: 3.07

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 50%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • WSH at home vs TBL: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-22	WSH 3 - 5 TBL	TBL	WSH
2025-11-08	TBL 3 - 2 WSH	TBL	TBL
2025-10-14	WSH 3 - 2 TBL	WSH	WSH
2025-03-01	WSH 1 - 3 TBL	TBL	WSH
2024-11-27	TBL 4 - 5 WSH	WSH	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	15	1	1.39
1	TBL	11	1	1.09
2	WSH	16	2	1.30
2	TBL	6	0	0.39
3	WSH	17	1	1.48
3	TBL	9	2	1.20

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 3 - 5 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.6 - 3.1