Montreal Canadiens at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2025-12-06 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 1 - 2 Montreal Canadiens (SO)

Win Probability

TOR: 44.9%

MTL: 55.1%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.21

MTL: 2.69

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 67%

Over 6.5: 50%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • TOR at home vs MTL: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-10	MTL 3 - 1 TOR	MTL	MTL
2025-12-06	TOR 1 - 2 MTL	MTL	MTL
2025-11-22	MTL 5 - 2 TOR	MTL	MTL
2025-10-08	TOR 5 - 2 MTL	TOR	MTL
2025-04-12	TOR 1 - 0 MTL	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	14	0	0.84
1	MTL	12	0	0.77
2	TOR	5	0	0.18
2	MTL	28	1	1.58
3	TOR	15	0	0.51
3	MTL	10	2	0.75
4	TOR	4	0	0.32
4	MTL	3	0	0.27
5	TOR	3	1	1.01
5	MTL	2	2	1.64

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 55.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 1 - 2 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.2 - 2.7