Tampa Bay Lightning at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2025-12-09 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 1 - 6 Tampa Bay Lightning

🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)

Win Probability

MTL: 59.2%

TBL: 40.8%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.01

TBL: 3.24

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 47%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 28% • MTL at home vs TBL: 3-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-03	TBL 1 - 2 MTL	MTL	TBL
2026-05-01	MTL 0 - 1 TBL	TBL	MTL
2026-04-29	TBL 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	TBL
2026-04-26	MTL 2 - 3 TBL	TBL	MTL
2026-04-24	MTL 3 - 2 TBL	MTL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	14	1	0.94
1	TBL	20	1	1.14
2	MTL	22	2	2.40
2	TBL	7	1	0.77
3	MTL	6	0	0.18
3	TBL	13	1	1.37

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 59.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 1 - 6 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.0 - 3.2