Tampa Bay Lightning at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2025-12-09 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 1 - 6 Tampa Bay Lightning

🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)

Win Probability

MTL: 54.8%

TBL: 45.2%

Expected Goals

MTL: 2.68

TBL: 2.92

Total Goals

Median: 4.5

Over 5.5: 37%

Over 6.5: 24%

MTL

Jakub Dobes - 29-10-4 | 0.901 SV% | 2.78 GAA

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 39-15-4 | 0.911 SV% | 2.31 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • MTL at home vs TBL: 2-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-09	MTL 2 - 1 TBL	MTL	TBL
2026-03-31	TBL 1 - 4 MTL	MTL	TBL
2025-12-28	TBL 5 - 4 MTL	TBL	TBL
2025-12-09	MTL 1 - 6 TBL	TBL	MTL
2025-02-09	MTL 3 - 5 TBL	TBL	TBL

Period	Time	Team	Scorer
1	02:27	TBL	Goal
1	06:03	TBL	Goal
1	17:12	TBL	Goal
2	02:43	TBL	Goal
2	19:06	TBL	Goal
3	01:22	TBL	Goal
3	08:41	TBL	Goal

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 5.6

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 1 - 6 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 2.7 - 2.9