Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Islanders NHL Predictions
2025-12-13 • UBS Arena
New York Islanders 3 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning (SO)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
NYI: 52.2%
TBL: 47.8%
Expected Goals
NYI: 3.18
TBL: 2.86
Total Goals
Median: 6.2
Over 5.5: 57%
Over 6.5: 42%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
NYI
Ilya Sorokin - 29-24-2 | 0.906 SV% | 2.68 GAA
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 39-15-4 | 0.911 SV% | 2.31 GAA
| Stat | NYI | TBL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.910 | 0.913 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.851 | 0.919 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.969 | 0.917 |
| GAA | 2.55 | 2.33 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • NYI at home vs TBL: 3-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-13 | NYI 3 - 2 TBL | NYI | NYI |
| 2025-12-06 | TBL 0 - 2 NYI | NYI | TBL |
| 2025-12-02 | NYI 2 - 1 TBL | NYI | NYI |
| 2025-04-01 | NYI 1 - 4 TBL | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-03-29 | TBL 5 - 3 NYI | TBL | TBL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 03:05 | NYI | Goal |
| 1 | 10:16 | NYI | Goal |
| 2 | 10:13 | NYI | Goal |
| 3 | 03:20 | NYI | Goal |
| 5 | 00:00 | NYI | Goal |
| 5 | 00:00 | NYI | Goal |
| 5 | 00:00 | NYI | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 52.2%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 6.0
Score Breakdown
New York Islanders 3 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning
Expected: 3.2 - 2.9
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