Edmonton Oilers at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions
2025-12-16 • PPG Paints Arena
Pittsburgh Penguins 4 - 6 Edmonton Oilers
🚨 Upset Loss (58% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
PIT: 57.8%
EDM: 42.2%
Expected Goals
PIT: 3.16
EDM: 3.15
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 60%
Over 6.5: 45%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
PIT
Stuart Skinner - 19-12-5 | 0.890 SV% | 2.79 GAA
EDM
Tristan Jarry - 15-7-2 | 0.890 SV% | 3.18 GAA
| Stat | PIT | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.888 | 0.906 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.863 | 0.841 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.773 | 0.811 |
| GAA | 2.91 | 2.73 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • PIT at home vs EDM: 1-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-22 | EDM 2 - 6 PIT | PIT | EDM |
| 2025-12-16 | PIT 4 - 6 EDM | EDM | PIT |
| 2025-01-09 | PIT 5 - 3 EDM | PIT | PIT |
| 2024-10-25 | EDM 4 - 0 PIT | EDM | EDM |
| 2024-03-10 | PIT 0 - 4 EDM | EDM | PIT |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11:38 | EDM | Goal |
| 1 | 11:52 | EDM | Goal |
| 1 | 19:15 | EDM | Goal |
| 2 | 04:35 | EDM | Goal |
| 2 | 06:24 | EDM | Goal |
| 2 | 09:36 | EDM | Goal |
| 3 | 06:47 | EDM | Goal |
| 3 | 16:51 | EDM | Goal |
| 3 | 18:41 | EDM | Goal |
| 3 | 19:46 | EDM | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 57.8%
Total Goals
Actual: 10.0
Expected: 6.3
Score Breakdown
Pittsburgh Penguins 4 - 6 Edmonton Oilers
Expected: 3.2 - 3.1