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Edmonton Oilers at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2025-12-16 • PPG Paints Arena
Pittsburgh Penguins 4 - 6 Edmonton Oilers
🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability
PIT: 51.8%
EDM: 48.2%
Expected Goals
PIT: 3.22
EDM: 3.03
Total Goals
Median: 6.4
Over 5.5: 63%
Over 6.5: 49%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

PIT
Stuart Skinner - 23-17-9 | 0.888 SV% | 2.92 GAA
EDM
Tristan Jarry - 18-9-3 | 0.882 SV% | 3.32 GAA
StatPITEDM
Season SV%0.8880.906
Last 5 SV%0.8860.837
SV% vs Opponent0.7730.811
GAA2.912.73
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • PIT at home vs EDM: 1-2
DateScoreWinnerModel Pick
2026-01-22EDM 2 - 6 PITPITEDM
2025-12-16PIT 4 - 6 EDMEDMPIT
2025-01-09PIT 5 - 3 EDMPITEDM
2024-10-25EDM 4 - 0 PITEDMEDM
2024-03-10PIT 0 - 4 EDMEDMEDM

⚡ In-Game Win Probability

0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 0:00 20:00 40:00 60:00 In-Game Win Probability Home Win Probability Game Time (minutes)

Goals

PeriodTimeTeamScorer
111:38EDMGoal
111:52EDMGoal
119:15EDMGoal
204:35EDMGoal
206:24EDMGoal
209:36EDMGoal
306:47EDMGoal
316:51EDMGoal
318:41EDMGoal
319:46EDMGoal

🎯 Shot Chart

Shot chart for Edmonton Oilers at Pittsburgh Penguins

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 51.8%
Total Goals
Actual: 10.0
Expected: 6.3
Score Breakdown
Pittsburgh Penguins 4 - 6 Edmonton Oilers
Expected: 3.2 - 3.0