Montreal Canadiens at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2025-12-28 • Benchmark International Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 5 - 4 Montreal Canadiens (SO)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

TBL: 64.0%

MTL: 36.0%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.37

MTL: 2.80

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 43%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

TBL

Jonas Johansson - 9-6-1 | 0.894 SV% | 2.83 GAA

MTL

Jacob Fowler - 3-1-2 | 0.904 SV% | 2.64 GAA

Stat	TBL	MTL
Season SV%	0.894	0.904
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.83	2.64

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Jonas Johansson	36	32	4	88.9%	4.92	5	0.92
MTL	Jacob Fowler	23	17	6	73.9%	5.67	8	-0.33

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • TBL at home vs MTL: 4-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-03	TBL 1 - 2 MTL	MTL	TBL
2026-05-01	MTL 0 - 1 TBL	TBL	MTL
2026-04-29	TBL 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	TBL
2026-04-26	MTL 2 - 3 TBL	TBL	MTL
2026-04-24	MTL 3 - 2 TBL	MTL	TBL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	4	0	0.32
1	MTL	16	2	1.43
2	TBL	18	5	2.22
2	MTL	15	1	1.08
3	TBL	10	1	1.05
3	MTL	25	2	1.80
4	TBL	2	0	0.33
4	MTL	4	0	0.40
5	TBL	2	2	1.75
5	MTL	2	0	0.22

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 64.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 5 - 4 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.4 - 2.8