Montreal Canadiens at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2025-12-28 • Benchmark International Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 5 - 4 Montreal Canadiens (SO)

Win Probability

TBL: 61.2%

MTL: 38.8%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.84

MTL: 3.29

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 46%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 28% • TBL at home vs MTL: 4-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-03	TBL 1 - 2 MTL	MTL	TBL
2026-05-01	MTL 0 - 1 TBL	TBL	MTL
2026-04-29	TBL 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	TBL
2026-04-26	MTL 2 - 3 TBL	TBL	MTL
2026-04-24	MTL 3 - 2 TBL	MTL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	4	0	0.32
1	MTL	16	2	1.43
2	TBL	18	5	2.22
2	MTL	15	1	1.08
3	TBL	10	1	1.05
3	MTL	25	2	1.80
4	TBL	2	0	0.33
4	MTL	4	0	0.40
5	TBL	2	2	1.75
5	MTL	2	0	0.22

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 61.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 7.1

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 5 - 4 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.8 - 3.3