Montreal Canadiens at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions
2025-12-28 • Benchmark International Arena
Tampa Bay Lightning 5 - 4 Montreal Canadiens (SO)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TBL: 55.4%
MTL: 44.6%
Expected Goals
TBL: 2.46
MTL: 2.83
Total Goals
Median: 3.4
Over 5.5: 19%
Over 6.5: 11%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 39-15-4 | 0.911 SV% | 2.31 GAA
MTL
Jakub Dobes - 29-10-4 | 0.901 SV% | 2.78 GAA
| Stat | TBL | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.913 | 0.889 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.919 | 0.891 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.905 | 0.928 |
| GAA | 2.33 | 3.01 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • TBL at home vs MTL: 3-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | MTL 2 - 1 TBL | MTL | TBL |
| 2026-03-31 | TBL 1 - 4 MTL | MTL | TBL |
| 2025-12-28 | TBL 5 - 4 MTL | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-12-09 | MTL 1 - 6 TBL | TBL | MTL |
| 2025-02-09 | MTL 3 - 5 TBL | TBL | TBL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 02:28 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 12:11 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 14:49 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 01:06 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 01:40 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 09:16 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 12:17 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 19:56 | TBL | Goal |
| 5 | 00:00 | TBL | Goal |
| 5 | 00:00 | TBL | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 55.4%
Total Goals
Actual: 9.0
Expected: 5.3
Score Breakdown
Tampa Bay Lightning 5 - 4 Montreal Canadiens
Expected: 2.5 - 2.8
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