Tampa Bay Lightning at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions
2026-01-03 • SAP Center at San Jose
San Jose Sharks 3 - 7 Tampa Bay Lightning
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
SJS: 44.5%
TBL: 55.5%
Expected Goals
SJS: 2.97
TBL: 2.52
Total Goals
Median: 3.8
Over 5.5: 31%
Over 6.5: 20%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
SJS
Yaroslav Askarov - 21-20-4 | 0.883 SV% | 3.63 GAA
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 39-15-4 | 0.911 SV% | 2.31 GAA
| Stat | SJS | TBL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.896 | 0.913 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.862 | 0.919 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.793 | 0.911 |
| GAA | 3.36 | 2.33 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • SJS at home vs TBL: 1-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-20 | TBL 4 - 1 SJS | TBL | TBL |
| 2026-01-03 | SJS 3 - 7 TBL | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-01-02 | SJS 2 - 1 TBL | SJS | TBL |
| 2024-12-05 | TBL 8 - 1 SJS | TBL | TBL |
| 2024-03-21 | SJS 1 - 4 TBL | TBL | TBL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 02:37 | TBL | Goal |
| 1 | 04:08 | TBL | Goal |
| 1 | 06:46 | TBL | Goal |
| 1 | 10:50 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 02:49 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 03:55 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 09:50 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 14:08 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 16:53 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 16:11 | TBL | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 55.5%
Total Goals
Actual: 10.0
Expected: 5.5
Score Breakdown
San Jose Sharks 3 - 7 Tampa Bay Lightning
Expected: 3.0 - 2.5
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