Tampa Bay Lightning at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions

2026-01-03 • SAP Center at San Jose

San Jose Sharks 3 - 7 Tampa Bay Lightning

Win Probability

SJS: 46.7%

TBL: 53.3%

Expected Goals

SJS: 3.04

TBL: 4.02

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 42%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • SJS at home vs TBL: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-20	TBL 4 - 1 SJS	TBL	TBL
2026-01-03	SJS 3 - 7 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-01-02	SJS 2 - 1 TBL	SJS	TBL
2024-12-05	TBL 8 - 1 SJS	TBL	TBL
2024-03-21	SJS 1 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SJS	10	1	0.89
1	TBL	20	0	1.40
2	SJS	14	2	1.24
2	TBL	8	0	0.74
3	SJS	13	0	1.07
3	TBL	14	1	1.41

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 10.0

Expected: 7.1

Score Breakdown

San Jose Sharks 3 - 7 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.0 - 4.0