Tampa Bay Lightning at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions

2026-01-03 • SAP Center at San Jose

San Jose Sharks 3 - 7 Tampa Bay Lightning

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

SJS: 39.0%

TBL: 61.0%

Expected Goals

SJS: 3.15

TBL: 3.07

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 44%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

SJS

Yaroslav Askarov - 15-10-1 | 0.896 SV% | 3.36 GAA

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Stat	SJS	TBL
Season SV%	0.896	0.913
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.36	2.33

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SJS	Yaroslav Askarov	26	19	7	73.1%	3.55	1	-3.45
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	22	19	3	86.4%	3.19	3	0.19

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • SJS at home vs TBL: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-20	TBL 4 - 1 SJS	TBL	TBL
2026-01-03	SJS 3 - 7 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-01-02	SJS 2 - 1 TBL	SJS	TBL
2024-12-05	TBL 8 - 1 SJS	TBL	TBL
2024-03-21	SJS 1 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SJS	10	1	0.89
1	TBL	20	0	1.40
2	SJS	14	2	1.24
2	TBL	8	0	0.74
3	SJS	13	0	1.07
3	TBL	14	1	1.41

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 61.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 10.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown