Toronto Maple Leafs at New York Islanders NHL Predictions
2026-01-03 • UBS Arena
New York Islanders 4 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs (OT)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
NYI: 62.7%
TOR: 37.3%
Expected Goals
NYI: 3.60
TOR: 2.68
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 58%
Over 6.5: 44%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
NYI
Ilya Sorokin - 20-13-2 | 0.916 SV% | 2.44 GAA
TOR
Joseph Woll - 13-7-4 | 0.908 SV% | 2.92 GAA
| Stat | NYI | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.910 | 0.914 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.930 | 0.910 |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | 0.840 |
| GAA | 2.55 | 2.74 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 57% • NYI at home vs TOR: 3-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-03 | NYI 4 - 3 TOR | NYI | NYI |
| 2025-01-02 | NYI 1 - 2 TOR | TOR | NYI |
| 2024-12-31 | TOR 3 - 1 NYI | TOR | TOR |
| 2024-12-21 | TOR 3 - 6 NYI | NYI | TOR |
| 2024-02-05 | TOR 2 - 3 NYI | NYI | TOR |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 17:19 | TOR | Goal |
| 2 | 09:30 | NYI | Goal |
| 2 | 01:10 | NYI | Goal |
| 3 | 17:15 | NYI | Goal |
| 3 | 12:12 | TOR | Goal |
| 3 | 11:10 | NYI | Goal |
| 4 | 04:11 | NYI | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 62.7%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 6.3
Score Breakdown
New York Islanders 4 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs
Expected: 3.6 - 2.7