Toronto Maple Leafs at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2026-01-03 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 4 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs (OT)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NYI: 54.7%

TOR: 45.3%

Expected Goals

NYI: 3.03

TOR: 2.99

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 68%

Over 6.5: 49%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NYI

David Rittich - 10-5-2 | 0.909 SV% | 2.46 GAA

TOR

Joseph Woll - 8-4-1 | 0.914 SV% | 2.74 GAA

Stat	NYI	TOR
Season SV%	0.909	0.914
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.46	2.74

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	David Rittich	21	18	3	85.7%	3.01	2	0.01
TOR	Joseph Woll	25	21	4	84.0%	2.33	1	-1.67

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 62% • NYI at home vs TOR: 5-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-09-30	TOR 2 - 1 NYI	TOR	TOR
2026-04-09	NYI 5 - 3 TOR	NYI	NYI
2026-03-17	TOR 1 - 3 NYI	NYI	NYI
2026-01-03	NYI 4 - 3 TOR	NYI	NYI
2025-01-02	NYI 1 - 2 TOR	TOR	TOR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	14	0	0.53
1	TOR	15	0	0.78
2	NYI	13	0	0.70
2	TOR	16	1	1.41
3	NYI	16	1	0.85
3	TOR	6	1	0.63
4	NYI	2	0	0.25
4	TOR	2	0	0.19

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

New York Islanders 4 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.0 - 3.0