Tampa Bay Lightning at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2026-01-10 • Xfinity Mobile Arena

Philadelphia Flyers 2 - 7 Tampa Bay Lightning

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

PHI: 46.7%

TBL: 53.3%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.07

TBL: 4.12

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 44%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

PHI

Samuel Ersson - 6-5-4 | 0.868 SV% | 3.09 GAA

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Stat	PHI	TBL
Season SV%	0.868	0.913
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.09	2.33

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	Samuel Ersson	23	16	7	69.6%	3.51	5	-3.49
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	20	18	2	90.0%	2.36	3	0.36

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • PHI at home vs TBL: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-12	PHI 1 - 5 TBL	TBL	TBL
2026-01-10	PHI 2 - 7 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-11-24	TBL 3 - 0 PHI	TBL	TBL
2025-03-17	TBL 2 - 0 PHI	TBL	TBL
2025-03-13	PHI 4 - 3 TBL	PHI	TBL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	13	3	1.57
1	TBL	14	1	0.96
2	PHI	12	0	0.52
2	TBL	12	2	1.25
3	PHI	6	0	0.27
3	TBL	11	2	1.31

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 7.2

Score Breakdown