Tampa Bay Lightning at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2026-01-10 • Xfinity Mobile Arena

Philadelphia Flyers 2 - 7 Tampa Bay Lightning

Win Probability

PHI: 42.3%

TBL: 57.7%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.30

TBL: 3.32

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 50%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 89% • PHI at home vs TBL: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-12	PHI 1 - 5 TBL	TBL	TBL
2026-01-10	PHI 2 - 7 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-11-24	TBL 3 - 0 PHI	TBL	TBL
2025-03-17	TBL 2 - 0 PHI	TBL	TBL
2025-03-13	PHI 4 - 3 TBL	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	13	3	1.57
1	TBL	14	1	0.96
2	PHI	12	0	0.52
2	TBL	12	2	1.25
3	PHI	6	0	0.27
3	TBL	11	2	1.31

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 2 - 7 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.3 - 3.3